I’m predicting a 5-6 seat Dem pick-up in the Senate with the Rhode Island seat being the Toss-up. I just have this nagging feeling that Chaffee will pull this out (although I hope not). I’ve included % guesses here for the Senate races, bypassed that for the Gubenatorial & California races. I’ve always relied on the Field Poll for California races but they’ve not issued anything new for the “down-the-ticket races so I’ll just go with a plain selection. Though I do not believe Arnie will win by double digits. The closet Statewide races should be Lt. Governor & Secty of State.
Competitive Senate Races
First Wave (+5 gain):
Pennsylvania – Casey 55- 45%
Ohio – Brown 54 – 46%
Virginia – Webb 52 – 48%
New Jersey – Menendez 53 –47%
Missouri – McCaskill 50.5 – 49.5%
Minnesota – Klobuchar 55% – 45%Montana – Tester 52 – 48%
Maryland – Cardin 51.5 – 48.5%Second Wave – 33% chance (4) (+1 gain*)
Arizona – Kyl-R 51.5- 48.5%
Connecticut – Lieberman-CFL 44.5 – 44 – 11.5%
Rhode Island – Chaffee-R 50.1 – 49.9% (*too close to call)
Tennessee – Corker-R 52.5 – 47.5%Senate Gain = 5-6 seats.
Governor Races:
Maine – Baldacci-D
Alabama – Riley-R
Illinois – BlagojevichPennsylvania – Rendell-D
Connecticut – Rell
Alaska – Knowles-D
Hawaii – Lingle-R
Maryland – O’Malley-D
New York – Spitzer-D
NY AG – Cuomo – D
New Hampshire – Lynch-D
Iowa – Culver-D
Michigan – Granholm-D
Florida – Davis -D
Kansas – Sebelius-D
Massachusettes – Patrick-D
New Mexico – Richardson-D
Ohio – Strickland-D
Rhode Island – Carcieri-R
Arizona – Napolitano-D
Arkansas – Bebe-D
Georgia – Perdue-R
Colorado – Ritter-D
Minnesota – Hatch-D
Nebraska – Heineman-R
South Dakota – Rounds-R
Oklahoma – Henry-D
Oregon – Kulongski-D
South Carolina – Sanford-R
Tennessee – Bredensen-D
Texas – Perry-R
Vermont – Douglas-R
Wisconsin – Doyle-D
Wyoming – Fuedenthal-D
NY Senate switches to D
Kansas AG – Morrison-D
Ohio Statewide Offices – D Sweep
Governor Gain = 8-9California State Races:
Dianne Feinstein – D (Chretien-G gets 10%)
Governor – Shwarzenegger-R
Lt. Governor – Garamendi-D
Secty of State – Bowen – D
Atty General – Brown – D
Treasurer – Lockyer-D
Controller – Chiang-D
Insurance Commish – Poizner-R
BOE #1 – Yee-D
St.Sen #8 – Yee-D
State Sen #10 – Corbett-D
Assembly #11 – DeSaulnier-D
Assembly #12 – Ma-D
Assembly #13 – Leno-D
SF prop.”J « Impeach Bush/Cheney – Yes 74.5%
SF Board Dist 4 – Chan-D
SF Board Dist 6 – Daly-D/G
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